The latest reproduction number (R) and growth rate of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK.
Latest R number and growth rate
Last updated on Friday 18 September 2020.
An R number between 1.1 and 1.4 means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 11 and 14 other people.
A growth rate between +2% and +7% means the number of new infections is growing by 2% to 7% every day.
The UK estimates of R and growth rate are averages over very different epidemiological situations and should be regarded as a guide to the general trend rather than a description of the epidemic state.
Latest by NHS England regions
These are the latest R and growth rate estimates by NHS England regions.
|Region||R||Growth rate % per day|
|England||1.2-1.4||+3 to +7|
|East of England||1.0-1.3||0 to +5|
|London||1.1-1.4||+3 to +7|
|Midlands||1.2-1.5||+4 to +8|
|North East and Yorkshire||1.2-1.4||+3 to +8|
|North West||1.2-1.5||+3 to +8|
|South East||1.1-1.4||+3 to +7|
|South West||0.9-1.6||0 to +9|
When the numbers of cases or deaths fall to low levels and/or there is a high degree of variability in transmission across a region, then care should be taken when interpreting estimates of R and the growth rate. For example, a significant amount of variability across a region due to a local outbreak may mean that a single average value does not accurately reflect the way infections are changing throughout that region.
It is SAGE’s expert view, however, that this week’s estimates are reliable, and that there is widespread growth of the epidemic across the country.
These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 over the past few weeks due to the time delay between someone being infected, having symptoms and needing healthcare.
Estimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range, and the true values are likely to lie within this range.