High pressure and dry conditions dominate our weather this week, but a change to a colder and more unsettled period is likely over the weekend and into the start of next week.
High pressure is continuing the largely dry theme we’ve seen through much of November so far, although some more persistent rain is likely for parts of western Scotland from Friday.
According to early provisional Met Office figures up to 11 November, sunshine has been in short supply so far, with 8.3 hours of sunshine accounting for just 14% of the full month’s long-term average for the UK. At this point, you’d normally expect to have seen around 37% of the average for the month.
The UK has also had its driest start to the month on record, in a series which dates back to 1891. An average of just 3.5 mm of rain has fallen in the UK so far this month, which is 3% of the long-term average for the whole of the month. Of course, with over half of the month still to go, there remains time for these figures to change significantly.
Colder weather on the way
A marked change to more unsettled and colder weather is expected over the weekend, as high pressure gradually subsides and allows winds to start coming in from the north or northwest.
Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Mark Sidaway said: “The high pressure that has been responsible for the mainly dry weather through much of this week will retrogress into the Atlantic as we get towards the weekend. This will gradually introduce more unsettled weather, initially in the north from Friday but more widely from Sunday.
“In addition to this increased rainfall, which could be heavy at times on Sunday, temperatures will also drop, especially for those in Scotland, as a northerly airflow develops, bringing colder Arctic air to some northern areas.
“This shift does introduce the possibility of snow, initially over high ground in the north from Sunday, with gusty winds also a potential hazard. There is a lot of uncertainty by Sunday, but there remain a number of scenarios which could bring some more widespread rain, along with some hill snow and stronger winds. Warnings for winter hazards are possible later in the weekend, so it’s important to stay up to date with the latest forecast.”
